Tomorrow, on November the 5th, the US presidential election will take place.
Here are my two cents on this crucial election.
To Hell with Donald J. Trump (and Elon Musk)
I won’t beat around the bush this time around, we have seen the disaster duo that are Trump and Musk. Both plan to crash the economy through extreme austerity measures, one being to cut the federal budget by 1/3rd (around 30%). Instead of taxing the wealthy, which is unsurprising for two billionaires – at least on paper -, to reduce national debt and improve the standard of living of the lower class and having sustainable growth by increasing the living wage both seek to make the lives of millions of Americans even harder. Similar to the far-right Javier Milei whose policies are praised within the GOP
(the poverty rate in Argentina skyrocketed to over 50% in the first six months).
Trump made it repeatedly clear that he loves the Gilded Age (1870s-1900s) and with it the extreme social inequalities of the time. For those who are not familiar with this part of US-American history, here a quick summary by Investopedia:
Given that Trump openly advocates for corruption by promising to appoint Musk as an overseer of government agencies, it’d only be a matter of time before robber barons haunt the US again (technically they already do, considering that Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Co. do not care about worker rights and working conditions – different excuses, same result).
Trump’s tax plans don’t bode well for 95% of the US-Americans, either.
Elon Musk uses his purchased social media platform, formerly known as Twitter, as a propaganda machine to help Trump’s cause. Not to mention his bribes to „motivate“ voters by signing a petition, in return for a chance to win one million dollars (an illegal lottery).
A billionaire helping another billionaire to destroy a democracy entirely.
Musk turned Twitter, which was toxic before but at least moderated, into a cesspool of racism, antisemitism and disinformation (also the reason why I left in December 2022).
Project 2025
It doesn’t stop with dreadful economic policies, now we come to the pet project of the Republicans: Project 2025. From abortion to climate policies, this program would be a nightmare if implemented. Some Americans may be tired of hearing it, but the democracy of the US – as flawed as it currently is – is still under assault. The far-right successfully mainstreamed their ideology in the GOP, it took them three decades and Trump’s election in 2016 exacerbated the authoritarian trends. So, prepare for a long troublesome period.
Government: The authors and supporters of Project 2025 seek to place the Department of Justice, currently an independent agency, under direct presidential control. The Job protection of thousands of government employees is to be eliminated, they’d get replaced by political appointees (in other words: sycophants). Then there are other federal agencies that would undergo drastic changes, such as the FBI that was described as a ‚bloated, arrogant, increasingly lawless organization‘. Lastly, they intend to completely eliminate the Department of Education.
Abortion and family: Reversing Roe vs Wade (Dec 13, 1971 – Jan 22, 1973), while a major victory for the reactionary right in the US, was only the beginning. Next to abolishing the right to abortion (thus denying essential healthcare), they propose the withdraw the abortion pill mifepristone from the market and use existing but little-enforced laws to stop postal delivery of the drug. The Projecters (a term I now use for the authors, supporters and sympathizers of Project 2025) seek to bolster data collection of abortions. Late-term abortions are to be banned. The Department of Health and Human Services should only maintain a traditional definition of marriage and family.
| Reasons for Late-term Abortion (Excerpt) Source: The reasons for termination of pregnancy in the third trimester Published: April 1999 Comment: For those interested why late-term abortions are carried out, here’s a study that was conducted between 1986-1994 in the Maternite Port Royal University Hospital in Paris, France. 305 out of 956 terminations were third-semester. |
| Results: One hundred and thirteen (37%) third trimester terminations of pregnancy were associated with false negative resulted from the results of earlier screening tests. In 15 terminations (5%), the decision was postponed, although the poor fetal prognosis was established earlier. In 55 (18%) the diagnosis was not possible earlier than the third trimester, and in 122 (40%) the diagnosis was possible earlier but the poor prognosis for the fetus was not established until the third trimester. Maternal morbidity due to termination of pregnancy was similar in the second and third trimester. Conclusion: One-third of late terminations of pregnancy could have been avoided by more efficient screening in the second trimester. However, because fetal prognosis is not always clear when a malformation is diagnosed, postponing the decision until fetal development allows more thorough evaluation and may avoid unnecessary termination of pregnancy in the second trimester. This could be the main beneficial aspect of not setting a limit to the gestational age for performing termination of pregnancy. |
Immigration: Unsuprisingly, the Projecters want to increase the funding for a wall on the US-Mexican border. The Department of Homeland Security is to be dismantled and combined with other immigration enforcement units in other agencies.
Furthermore, they seek to abolish visa categories for victims of crime and human trafficking. Those who want fast-tracked applications have to pay a premium.
Climate and Economy: Another goal of the Projecters is to abandon renewable energy entirely and return to a fossil fuel-based economy. Consequently, there would be no incentive for carbon reduction thus worsening the climate crisis which threatens our natural basis of existence (especially agriculture and our fresh water supply). They want to actively ruin the future of the future generations for short-term profits, the Oil and Gas industry deserves to be blamed here as well because they knew about it since the 1970s which is why they initiated the anti-science campaign. Culminating in what we not only see in the US, but also countries like Germany where the far-right AfD represents the same.
On free trade the authors are divided: they are indecisive about whether the next president should support free trade or increase barriers to imports.
They do, however, agree on cutting corproate and income taxes further, abolishing the Federal Reserve and even take into consideration to return to the Gold Standard.
Tech and education: If Project 2025 were to be implemented, pornography would be banned and tech and telecom companies that allow access to it shut down.
Over the past few years, we’ve also seen the buzzword „woke“ being thrown around. So, expectedly, it also appears in the document where they disguise their authoritarianism and anti-Enlightenment as advocation for ‚school choice and parental control over schools‘.
When it comes to laws and federal regulations, they intend to eliminate a long list of terms in them such as ’sexual orientation‘, ‚gender equality‚, ‚abortion‘ and ‚reproductive rights‘.
Programs in schools which promote diversity, equity and inclusion would be terminated.
Mind you: there’s no such thing as a „woke ideology“. If it ever had a meaning, it’s long gone. It serves – especially on the far-right – as a catch-all phrase for everything they oppose: pluralism, parliamentarism, the LGBT community (esp. trans rights), women rights, worker rights (basically human rights), renewable energy, and so on.
Prior to the controversy, Project 2025 was backed by a $22m (£17m) budget.
What happens if Trump loses the election?
Riots. Increase of hate crimes. Defeat denial (which groundwork has already been laid).
However, it’s also a chance to slowly drive back the reactionary forces through efforts on a state and local level by championing for issues like renewable energies (how it would benefit an individual, for instance a balcony power plant) and inclusivity and equity (that through merit and passion an individual regardless of social or racial background, gender or religion has a chance to get the profession they seek).
What happens if Trump wins the election?
Increase of hate crimes. Likely the complete erosion of American democracy (even though Trump and his campaign try to distance themselves from Project 2025, I don’t trust them at all that they actually mean it – he has proven often enough that he loves dictators, said how he wants to be „dictator for one day“ and use the military against dissidents).
Roll back of LGBT rights and further aggressions against the trans community on a legislative and public level (e.g. by spreading lies).
Impact Beyond the US
If Donald Trump were to be elected again, we would most likely see a further surge in the far-right across the globe. The Trump Administration would stop aid to Ukraine and, with other far-right Russian bootlicker parties in Europe, serve Ukraine on a silver plate to Vladimir Putin and allow the cultural genocide to occur. Europe, especially the EU and NATO, would be on its own confronted with an imperialistic, war-mongering Russia that seeks to re-establish the Soviet Union through military force and hybrid warfare – especially the latter, which includes the spread of disinformation, support of far-right parties and other pro-Putin forces, cyber-attacks on private companies, institutions and public facilities (like hospitals), acts of sabotage carried out by pro-Russian terrorists, propaganda on social media, etc.
The climate crisis would worsen due to the refusal to decrease Co2-emissions and poorer countries would suffer the most. Even though we have the technology and measures to prevent the worst, the refusal of the biggest economy and military power to do what is right and just might result in more industrialized countries turning their back on combatting the climate crisis. Us, and future generations, would needlessly suffer.
Instead of solving the looming immigration crisis due to climate change, the wealthy countries would prefer to seal off their borders (the EU is also at fault for yielding to far-right demands instead of going about it in a humane way, for instance by creating safe and regular refugee routes and establishing an international migration center for coordination).
After all, if the EU and the US do it, why shouldn’t other countries follow suit?
In this imagined zero-sum situation, an illusion is fed that immigrants only take things away instead of realizing that the vast majority seek to be productive members of society.
Immigration may still be allowed to some extent, but the hostility towards immigrants prevents full integration and leads to two different realities. Their living standard may be better than in their home country, but their quality of life is worse due to isolation.
On Kamala Harris
It is evident by now whom I prefer. Policy-wise it isn’t a 1:1 match and that isn’t important.
I want that we still have a chance to combat the climate crsis, because even here in Germany I see conservative and economic-liberal politicians arguing more and more how we still would have time or that it is too much asked for. Without a doubt, the Merzs, Lindners, Wagenknechts, Aiwangers and Söders would view it as a vital momentum if a party openly talking about a fossil fuel-based economy would emerge victorious.
Harris would continue the transition to a green economy and ensure that more jobs are generated in this part of the energy sector where energy doesn’t run out within a few lifetimes. Unlike Trump and his entourage, she is not anti-science.
Harris would not endanger the rule of law, and I know that bar is extremely low, but sadly this is how low it has sunk due to Trump. Democracy is more than fair and free elections, more than the rule of the majority – or at least it should be -. Democracy is participation in democratic processes (like citizen’s groups and local politics), protecting the right of minorities and eventually achieving horizontal respect (that citizens not only tolerate but accept different religious, ethnic and sexual identities), a constructive public discourse, etc.
I don’t know how much she’d achieve regarding LBGT issues and women rights, considering that Republicans and the Supreme Court will interfere as often as they can.
A further deterioration could be prevented, especially since the new president-elect wouldn’t be one who spews hateful rhetoric. And that in itself is valuable.
I don’t have much hope for the immigrants who seek a better life in the US, as the Democrats seem to follow on the harsher line – on the US-Mexican border.
Not much will change regarding the war in Gaza, but there’s hope she’s going to be a pain in the ass for Netanyahu and doesn’t give him a free ride as Trump would do.
Regarding Ukraine, Harris would uphold the support for Ukraine and hopefully finally allow Ukrainians to strike within Russian territory – as it is already legally their right according to international law. Ukraine was attacked by an aggressor, this aggressor is Russia.
Putin’s Russia doens’t have the seemingly infinite resources of Soviet Russia, they are very much finite and we might be closer to their depletion than we realize – especially by allowing counter-attacks on miltiary and administrative bases within Russia.
In the long-term, NATO should finally become more independent to ensure better protection for the hopefully future NATO-member Ukraine. I think the US would also prefer to worry less about their allies and partners in Europe.
Lastly, and this is my political philosophy: we are in a political war against authoritarianism. In Ukraine we see what happens when the political war turns into a military war and history has shown us what dictators do if left largely unchallenged by the international community – democracies in particular.
Consequently, my primary focus is to protect democracies and I support political parties, movements, organizations and politicians who are like-minded. It is the foundation.
Only on this foundation the other goals can be achieved, such as strengthening the International Criminal Court, transparency in our democracies, facilitating participation in democratic processes, combatting wealth and income inequality, combatting the climate crisis, etc.
I know that American democracy is flawed, from gerrymandering to the power of large companies like Amazon and billionaires like the Koch Brothers. It is extremely frustrating and very infuriating, and that’s why I advocate for and am in support of efforts that go beyond local, state and federal elections. The problems that accumulated over the last four decades are large, but we do not have to reach the summit in one day with our current equipment. It won’t be over once this election has been decided; the 30 years of GOP radicalization won’t just disappear once Trump is gone; neither all the current problems that plague us. However, our starting position would be much better.
If Trump does emerge victorious, then we’ll need strong individuals, communities, groups, organizations and political parties to first survive the onslaught and then re-emerge with perseverance. But it will be a lot more difficult, if not impossibly frustrating and angering.
Sources
Musk says Americans will have to face ‚hardship‘ if Trump wins
https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/elon-musk-trump-hardship-austerity-taxes-rcna177732
A Distributional Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan
https://itep.org/a-distributional-analysis-of-donald-trumps-tax-plan-2024/
The Gilded Age Explained: An Era of Wealth and Inequality
https://www.investopedia.com/gilded-age-7692919
Project 2025: The right-wing wish list for another Trump presidency
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977njnvq2do
Roe v. Wade
https://www.britannica.com/event/Roe-v-Wade
Questions and Answers on Mifepristone for Medical Termination of Pregnancy Through Ten Weeks Gestation
https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-information-patients-and-providers/questions-and-answers-mifepristone-medical-termination-pregnancy-through-ten-weeks-gestation
The reasons for termination of pregnancy in the third trimester
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10426234/
Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 years ago
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/
What Is the Gold Standard? History and Collapse
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/gold-standard.asp
Baroque 