In Today’s Tabellarius we cover the ongoing war in Ukraine, the devastating earthquake which hit Turkey-Syria and the mismanagement of Covid-19 funds in Togo.
Ukraine
It’s been almost a year since Russia started its war of aggression against Ukraine. Thousands of Ukrainians – civilians and soldiers alike – already died or were injured and millions of Ukrainians had to flee within Ukraine (internally displaced persons) or flee to other countries. Consequently, we begin with the civilian casualties as of February 5, 2023 (last time I wrote about it was on September 29, 2022, for reference):
a total of 7,155 killed (2,853 men, 1,927 women, 180 girls, and 226 boys, as well as 32
children and 1,937 adults whose sex is not yet known)
Increase: +1,159 killed (+519 men, +322 women, 23 girls, and +36 boys, as well as the 32 children and 1,937 adults whose sex is not yet known)
– a total of 11,662 injured (2,576 men, 1,833 women, 248 girls, and 339 boys, as well as 264 children and 6,402 adults whose sex is not yet known)
Increase: +2,814 injuries (+726 men, +477 women, 57 girls, and 75 boys, as well as 264 children and 6,402 adults whose sex is not yet known)
o In Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 10,092 casualties (4,172 killed and 5,920 injured)
– On Government-controlled territory: 7,888 casualties (3,665 killed and 4,223 injured)
– On territory controlled by Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups: 2,204 casualties (507 killed and 1,697 injured)
Increase: +1,710 casualties in Donetsk and Luhansk (+518 killed and +1,129 injured)
On territory controlled by the government +1,231 casualties and on Russian-controlled territory +479 casualties.
o In other regions of Ukraine (the city of Kyiv, and Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Ivano-
Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia,
Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, Rivne, Lviv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Volyn, and
Zhytomyr regions), which were under Government control when casualties
occurred: 8,725 casualties (2,983 killed and 5,742 injured)
Increase: +2,263 casualties (+578 killed and +1,685 injured)
„Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with wide area effects, including shelling from heavy artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles and air strikes.
OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. This concerns, for example, Mariupol (Donetsk region), Lysychansk, Popasna, and Sievierodonetsk (Luhansk region), where there are allegations of numerous civilian casualties.“ (OCHA relief web)
Across Europe, there are currently 8,054,407 recorded refugees (as of February 7, 2023), which means since September 27, 2022 520,564 more Ukrainians fled their home country.
That’s nearly as many people that live in Dresden, Germany (with 567,375 inhabitants).
It goes without saying that behind each number is a human with their own story; hopes and dreams that have been destroyed with the beginning of the Russian invasion and the painful decision of leaving (the photos I show below are from the Red Cross, all the way back in March 2022). So, here are some of the faces and names, along with a Polish helper.
Photo 1 Tanja with her four children, before they arrived in Poland they fled for 30 hours. Photo 2 Pendura and her family who were headed to Spain at the time.
Photo 3 After heavy bombing, Alina and her daughter fled from their neighbourhood.
Photo 4 When the conflict started, the two students Francis and Frank left Ukraine.
Photo 5 Viktoria and her mother were headed for their relatives in Poland.
Photo 6 Magdalena Michutka Kuras is a paramedic who volunteered at the health station at the Przemysl train station in Poland. She distributed toys to Ukrainian children: „It is nice to see how happy they are when they are given a toy.“
Russian War Crimes
According to Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin, Russia committed more than 65,000 war crimes in Ukraine since Moscow started the war on February 24, 2022. It ranges from indiscriminate shelling of civilians, willful killing, torture, conflict-related sexual violence, looting and forced displacement on a massive scale. Moreover, he says that they documented the abduction of more than 14,000 Ukrainian children and who were forced into adoption in Russia. About 75,000 buildings have already been destroyed, including homes, schools and hospitals. Then there’s the weaponization of the winter season, as it is elaborated by Kostin: “Russia resorts to prohibited methods of warfare like weaponizing winter and aiming to starve, freeze and terrorize the civilian population in the whole territory of Ukraine.” Due to Russia’s shelling, approximately half of Ukraine’s energy sector has been destroyed. The US’s top military officer, Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, called Russia’s deliberate targeting of energy structure in Ukraine a war crime.
However, establishing a special tribunal to proescute these war crimes is another question.
The International Criminal Court cannot prosecute them, because war crimes cross a range of jurisdictions. Neither can they prosecute heads of states like Vladimir Putin.
The United Nations could endorse a special tribunal, but this is also unlikely to happen since Russia is still able to veto all measures put forth by the 15-member group.
In light of this, the US is considering a proposal that would name an interim prosecutor, he’d then start to record evidence of potential war crimes. Kostin said that European countries like France and the UK have agreed to create a special tribunal.
Author’s Note
Whether we will able to prosecute the war criminals right after the war remains in the open, but for now the main focus is on ensuring a victory for Ukraine and help them in gaining back their entirey territory including occupied Crimea. This can only be achieved by maintaining military and humanitarian aid. Recording the war crimes remains a priority as well, because even if it takes us decades to finally get them in front of a court, we will be able to confront Russia with it and show other authoritarian countries that their disregard for human lives won’t be ignored. They may blind their own people with chauvinistic propaganda and disinformation, but their crimes remain transparent and clearly visible to the world. We remain determined to hold them accountable one day!
Sources
Ukraine: Civilian casualties as of 24:00, 5 February 2023 [EN/RU/UK]
https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-civilian-casualties-2400-5-february-2023-enruuk
Population Dresden
https://www.dresden.de/en/city/statistics/Population.php
Voices of Ukraine: Refugees Tell Their Stories
https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/news/2022/voices-of-ukraine-refugees-tell-their-stories.html
Russia has committed more than 65,000 war crimes in Ukraine, prosecutor general says
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/ukraine-russia-war-65000-war-crimes-committed-prosecutor-general-says.html
Turkey-Syria
On February 5, 2023, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Turkey and Syria. The epicentre was located 26 km east of the Turkish city of Nurdagi at a depth of about 18 km on the East Anatolian Fault. For comparison: the earthquake that hit Italy in 2016 measured 6.2 on the Richter scale, the one that hit Turkey and Syria released 250 times as much energy.
In Italy some 300 people died as a result, in this quake died at least 42,000 people.
Just eleven minutes after the initial earthquake, the region was hit by a 6.7-magnitude after shock. A 7.5-magnitude quake occurred hours later, followed by a 6.0 spasm in the afternoon. In 1822, when approximately 20,000 people died after a 7.0 earthquake hit the region, the aftershocks lasted into the following year as well.
And while the late-20th century was rather calm – only three earthquakes registering above 6.0 on the Richter Skale in that area since 1970 -, the tectonic activity beneath „essentially ensured that a devastatingly strong earthquake would eventually rock the region“.
The first building codes in Turkey began to be instated after the 1936* rupture under the Marmara Sea and additional building codes were added in 1999 after another earthquake.
Another country prone to earthquakes is Japan. There, Fukushima experienced a 7.3-magnitude earthquake leaving four dead. But in contrast to eastern Turkey, the economic system in Japan is able to provide and engineer structures to withstand moderate earthquake magnitudes. The interviewed expert, Professor Joshua Russell from the Syracuse University, explains that the lack of enforcing regulations in Turkey results in this difference.
| Seismic Risk Mitigation Practices in School Buildings in Istanbul, Turkey |
| In 1999, the Kocaeli earthquake of magnitude 7.6 damaged a significant amount of primary and seconday schools in the earthquake-affected region. On average, the performance of school buildings was much better* than that of the general building stock. Out of 820 schools that were reportedly affected: 689 schools were only slightly damaged (repair without interruption of education) 131 schools had to temporarily terminate educational activities, 13 of them were heavily damaged and replaced with new seismically safer schools, 59 of them were repaired, 37 of them were strengthend and 22 of them were demolished and reconstructed *The OECD article doesn’t elaborate on the performance comparison |
| source: https://www.oecd.org/education/innovation-education/33629220.pdf |
On average, there are fewer than 20 quakes over 7.0 magnitude in any year. From 2013 to 2022, only two were of the same magnitude as the one on Monday.
One reason for the destructive earthquake is the East Anatolian Fault which is a strike-slip.
„In those, solid rock plates are pushing up against each other across a vertical fault line, building stress until one finally slips in a horizontal motion, releasing a tremendous amount of strain that can trigger an earthquake.“ (Reuters)
A well-known one is located in the US, the San Andreas Fault in California. Here, scientists are also warning that a catastrophic quake is long overdue.
Another reason is that the earthquake involved a break on fault which stretched for 300 kilometers (186 miles). Susan Hough, a seismologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, told ABCNews that there’s a correlation between size of the fault and the earthquake.
* While looking for more information on the building codes of Turkey in 1936 and 1999, I came across the study „Evolution of Seismic Building Design Practice in Turkey!“ by an unknown author (judging from the number „2“ before the title, I assume that it is very likely an excerpt from a journal or similar) where a more detailed insight was given:
The 1968 revisal is designated as being „substantially different“ from earlier codes. As the author explains: „The 1968 code changed the procedures for calculating earthquake demands on building components, introduced requirements for detailing reinforced concrete components, and introduced modern concepts relating to spectral shape and dynamic response.“ (p. 5-6)
Moreover, the code also introduced geometry and detailing requirements for reinforced concrete components.
In Syria, outdated building methods also contributed to the disaster. The Syrian seismic design code published in 2004, for instance, doesn’t mention any MCE (Maximum Considered Earthquake) earthquake level anyhwere in the code (Ahmed Alhourani, Ji Dang June 2013, p. 3). The case study (authors already mentioned) „A Framework for Performance-Based Seismic Design Approach for Developing Countries, A Case study of Syria“ (13 pages) goes more into detail and also proposes a solution (as well as including factors such as socio-economical conditions (present capability and future development).
Additionally, years of civil war left the infrastructure crumpling.
There are four major seismic sources in and around Syria: the Dead Sea Fault system (DSF), the Shear Palmyride Fault system (SPF), East Anatolian Fault system (EAF) south of Turkey and the Zagros Thrust Zone system (ZTZ) northwest of Iran.
(source: A Framework for Performance-Based Seismic Design Approach for Developing Countries, A Case study of Syria)
Kit Miyamoto, when interviewed by NPR, said that the building codes enacted after the 1999 quake near Izmit are good, but many structures predate those codes."Anything built prior to 2000 can be considered very dangerous," he says. Further, even with the newer building codes, enforcement is "not very robust," so even some of the latest construction is not necessarily up to standards. (NPR)
Author’s Note
Here, I focused more on the cause of the severity of the earthquake and the nature of both countries Turkey and Syria (tectonic plates). I read the two studies to gain a greater insight into this topic, if you still have any suggestions or proposal for improvement feel free to comment or email me (this goes for all of my blog entries, the more the merrier – reader’s letters are welcome too).
Sources
How regional fault lines led to such a destructive earthquake in Turkey, Syria
https://abcnews.go.com/International/regional-fault-lines-led-destructive-earthquake-turkey-syria/story?id=97005531
Explainer: Why was the Turkey-Syria earthquake so bad?
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/why-was-turkey-syria-earthquake-so-bad-2023-02-06/
In Turkey and Syria, outdated building methods all but assured disaster from a quake
https://www.npr.org/2023/02/07/1154816277/turkey-syria-earthquake-why-buildings-collapsed
Evolution of Seismic Building Design Practice in Turkey (PDF, 20 pages)
! When I downloaded the file, Windows Defender showed three low risks.
It can be opened without being downloaded, at least when I accessed it over the search engine, don’t know if it automatically downloads when directly linked.
https://teknolojikkazalar.org/get_file?id=4acb555634176
A Framework for Performance-Based Seismic Design Approach for Developing Countries, A Case study of Syria (website with pdf download, 13 pages)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280091949_A_Framework_for_Performance-Based_Seismic_Design_Approach_for_Developing_Countries_A_Case_study_of_Syria
Togo
Location: Togo (officially: the Togolese Republic) is a country in West Africa. The three neighbouring countries bordering her are Ghana (West), Benin (East) and Burkina Faso (North), to the South is the Gulf of Guinea.
General Information: Togo’s surface area is 56,785 km², thereby it is about 1/3rd larger than Switzerland with 41,284 km². The population of Togo is 8.48 million and it is made up of 30 ethnic groups, the north and southwest is inhabitated by indigenous Togonese. In the north are the Gurma; the Natimba, Dye, and Konkomba; the Tamberma; the Basari; the Moba; the Losso (Naudem); the Kabre and Logba; and the Lamba (Namba); a small number of Atlantic-speaking Fulani; and the Kebu (Akebu). In the southwest live the indigenous Kwa peoples, also belonging to the central Togo group are the Kposo (Akposso), the Adele, and the Ahlo. Lomé is the capital of Togo, but there also other important cities like Kara, Sokodé, Kpalimé and Atakpamé. French is the administrative language. Lastly, the form of government is a presidential republic and the last revision to the constitution was in 2019.
Short History1: Before the colonial era, Togo was an intermediate zone between the states of Asante and Dahomey and its various ethnic groups lived in general isolation from each other. During the colonial era, it played an important role during the slave trade and in 1884 it became part of the Togoland German protectorate. For 30 years it remained a German colony, then it was occupied by British and French troops. In 1922, the League of Nations assigned eastern Togoland to France and the western portion to Britain. After the Second World War, in 1946, the British and French governments placed the territories under United Nations trusteeship where it would stay until it gained its independence on April 27, 1960 – only the former French area, the former British area was incoporated into the Gold Coast. 7 years later the government was overthrown by Gnassingbé Eyadéma who governed Toga dictatorial until 2005. Since then, slight tendencies towards democratization are observable. However, the dynastically-structured governing party still dominates the economic and political sphere.
News: On February 10 at 1533 (3:33 pm), africanews reported on a released 86-paged document which made headlines that week and led to discussions on social media, several opposition figures also called on the president (Faura Essozinma Gnassingbé, since May 4, 2005) to take action. The report revealed that 13 million euros were spent on the purchase of 31,500 tonnes of rice by the Ministry of Commerce, without any trace of an order. Further, cash transfers meant for the poorest flowed sometimes to people who were not eligible.
Back in March 2020, after the discovery of the first case of coronavirus, the government created the Covid-19 Response and Solidarity Fund (FRSC). The fund received technical and finanical support from international partners, such as the Union European, the IMF or even the World Bank. In 2020, 108 billion FCFA (165 million euros) were spent.
„The opposition calls on the president to „act“, like MP Gerry Taama who sees this report as proof of embezzlement of public funds. „At a time when Covid-19 and the high cost of living lead Togolese to tighten their belts, it is intolerable that other compatriots (of) take advantage to enrich themselves,“ he said in a statement.“
On the same day at 1642 (4:42 pm), the Togolese government dismissed the allegations.
For the executive, the Court „did not establish a report of embezzlement or fraud“ and the government argued that „[the] Court [recognized] that the possible ineligibility of an expenditure may [arose] from a context marked by extreme urgency due to the unpredictability of the crisis (…) This does not mean that the expenditure is fictitious or that the funds have been used in an illegal or even misappropriated way“.
The Dynamic Monsignor Kpodzro (DMK) – consisting of seven opposition political parties and six civil society organizations – published a press release where they invited the public prosecutor to „self-seize in this case“, further, „[the] DMK believes that once again, the Togolese people have just been betrayed by men and women who do not have their trust, and Faure Gnassingbé must draw all the necessary consequences,“ the statement added“.
That’s the development as of now*, for those who are now interested in Togo: the legislative elections are coming up, with the previous taking place in 2018 (boycotted by main opposition parties who cited irregularities in the preperations). A main Togo opposition party already held a rally ahead of the election with the ANC president saying: „We want change in this country and the ANC is a political party that fights. The Togolese people are suffering and we must fight to get the country out of this situation.“
(More: https://www.africanews.com/2023/02/13/main-togo-opposition-party-holds-rally-ahead-of-elections/)
On an international level, Togo also participated in the Munich Security Conference, but the article is in French: „Le Togo était représenté par une délégation conduite par le ministre des Affaires étrangères, de l’intergénération régionale et des Togolais de l’extérieur, le professeur Robert Dussey.“
(Article: https://icilome.com/2023/02/allemagne-une-delegation-togolaise-a-la-msc-2023/)
That’s the development as of now*, for those who are now interested in Togo: the legislative elections are coming up, with the previous taking place in 2018 (boycotted by main opposition parties who cited irregularities in the preperations). A main Togo opposition party already held a rally ahead of the election with the ANC president saying: „We want change in this country and the ANC is a political party that fights. The Togolese people are suffering and we must fight to get the country out of this situation.“
(More: https://www.africanews.com/2023/02/13/main-togo-opposition-party-holds-rally-ahead-of-elections/)
On an international level, Togo also participated in the Munich Security Conference, but the article is in French: „Le Togo était représenté par une délégation conduite par le ministre des Affaires étrangères, de l’intergénération régionale et des Togolais de l’extérieur, le professeur Robert Dussey.“
(Article: https://icilome.com/2023/02/allemagne-une-delegation-togolaise-a-la-msc-2023/)
*at least on africanews, there’s one from February 18 on the French website, but I’m still very much a French beginner which is why I wouldn’t be able to correctly translate it (Article: https://icilome.com/2023/02/togo-gestion-des-fonds-covid-de-vaines-tentatives-pour-noyer-le-rapport-de-la-cour-des-comptes/)
Author’s Note
The developments, both on the mismanagement of Covid-19 funds and the upcoming legislative election, are worth further attention. While writing about Togo I was glad learning about another country and I hope that I may even sparked interest in some for this African country. In case you want to know the full list of participants of the Munich Security Conference, which I mentioned at the end, check out the official website where it is in a pdf file listen: https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2023/participants/
Sources
1 Der Neue Kosmos (p. 419)
Welt – Almanach & Atlas 2023
ISBN: 978-3-440-17319-0
Publisher: Kosmos
Togo
https://www.britannica.com/place/Togo
News on Togo
https://www.africanews.com/search/Togo
News (French)
https://icilome.com/category/pays/togo/
Baroque 